Card counting is normally associated with blackjack, but the same basic idea can, surprisingly, be applied to baccarat, too. As cards leave the shoe, the remaining composition changes slightly, and this can actually alter the expected return of the Banker and Player bets.
This doesn’t mean Baccarat card counting offers an easy way to make money at a casino, because even an accurate counting system makes only a tiny difference to the house edge. Plus, you need to track every exposed card, understand when the count favours one side, and, in some systems, even sit through long stretches without betting, which can look very suspicious if you’re playing in a casino and could lead to you even being ejected.
The most important thing to remember, though, is that card counting looks at which cards have been removed from the shoe. It is not the same as watching the scoreboard, following streaks, or assuming that the Banker is “due” after several Player wins.
Yes, baccarat cards can be counted when the game uses a finite shoe and the cards are not shuffled after every hand – but that pretty much rules out online play entirely, and relies on land-based casinos where they only use one deck.
You see, every card dealt changes the collection of cards that remain in the shoe. Different card values affect the player and banker drawing rules in different ways; removing particular cards can slightly improve or, even worse, the expected value of each bet.
Unlike blackjack, however, the impact of card counting in baccarat is a lot lower. That’s because in blackjack, a deck that is heavy in tens and aces can create situations where the player gains an actual mathematical advantage. Whereas in baccarat, counting simply helps you to identify which of the two main bets is marginally better.
Yes, it is possible, but unless you’re an expert mathematician and are willing to grind hours and are willing to spend hours sitting at a table for a minuscule percentile of an advantage, it’s pretty much pointless.
Most baccarat tables display previous results using scoreboards such as the bead plate, Big Road, and derived roads. And, sure; these displays can be useful for recording what has happened, but they do not tell you what will happen next, and that’s because baccarat, like all casino games, is a game of chance.
There can be 40 Banker wins in a row – but that doesn’t mean that Banker is less likely to win on the next round, or that Player is more likely to. Past winning outcomes have absolutely no bearing on future outcomes – and, importantly for this article, past winning sides don’t actually change the composition of the remaining shoe, either – unless you know exactly which individual cards were dealt.
For example, one hand could end in a Banker win after exposing four low-value cards, while another could show several eights and nines. The scoreboard would then record both hands in exactly the same way – but their effects on the remaining shoe are entirely different from each other, and this is why betting systems based on roads, streaks and alternating patterns shouldn’t be confused with card counting.
Baccarat card counting works in a similar way to blackjack: you assign a value to each card as it appears. The player keeps a running total throughout the shoe and uses that total to decide whether Banker or Player currently offers the better expected return. There are a few different variations of baccarat-based card counting, but most systems group the cards as follows:
The count begins at zero when a new shoe starts, and each time a card is exposed, it’s added to the current count, including cards dealt to both Player and Banker. In this particular system, for example, Player becomes the better bet when the running count reaches -4 or lower, while at counts above that point, Banker is the preferred option. Now that doesn’t mean that Player becomes a +EV bet – it just means that it’s expected to lose less than Banker.
Under standard baccarat rules, Banker normally has a lower house edge than Player, although winning Banker bets usually pay a 5% commission, unless you’re on some special zero per cent commission version of the game, which is rare.
Without counting, the approximate house edges used in the analysed system are:
| Bet | Approximate House Edge |
|---|---|
| Banker | 1.06% |
| Player | 1.24% |
Using this simplified counting strategy and also betting on every single hand would reduce the combined house edge to roughly 1.01%. If you use a slightly more complicated version that adjusts the switching point as the shoe progresses, then the house edge can drop to around 1.00%, which is an improvement but a very small one.
To put this into perspective, for every $100 wagered, the theoretical loss changes from around $1.06 to just around $1 using the more advanced counting approach. In theory, yes, it works, but you virtually reduce the house edge. The reduction of the house edge is virtually nonexistent, and nothing like it is in blackjack.
This depends entirely on the type of baccarat that’s being played online. If you’re playing standard random number generator (RNG) blackjack, the game’s shoe is electronic and reshuffled between hands. This means it’s physically not possible to count cards in baccarat in this manner.
The only exception to this rule is some formats of live dealer baccarat, where they deal from a multi-deck shoe. In principle, this does create the same card-removal effects you’d find at a land-based baccarat table, but the practical obstacles are much higher. It’s harder to see each card clearly. Y
ou have to join the game at the beginning of the shoe. You need to know the game’s commission and drawing rules, and the shoe has to continue long enough to meet the count requirements for online baccarat games. It’s possible; for the most part, it’s highly unlikely you’d be able to put it off.
Baccarat is challenging for advantage players because the house has an edge in almost every aspect of the game, and you don’t have any decision to make other than which actual bets to place. For example, the drawing decisions are automatic: there’s no hitting, standing, splitting, or doubling down to worry about. There’s also no strategy involved once you’ve placed your bets – it’s all down to luck.
Now, Banker already starts with a fairly low house edge, and the commission charged on winning Banker bets helps keep the casino’s house edge. Sure, card removal can change some of the underlying probabilities, but normally by nowhere near enough to overcome that built-in margin.
In reality, that means baccarat card counters have three fairly unappealing choices:
Those limitations are exactly why counting cards in baccarat is nothing like the clear advantage that a skilled blackjack counter can create.
Most players will be able to get a much better advantage from choosing a sensible stake size than they would from trying to count cards. It may sound unglamorous, but that’s the reality.
Under standard commission rules, Banker is generally the strongest of the three main bets, though Player is only slightly worse, making it a reasonable alternative for players who prefer the even-money payout.
You should, generally speaking, avoid Tie bets as much as possible: yes, they look as though they offer much higher win potential, but the house edge on these bets tends to be incredibly high. As a general rule of thumb:
Counting cards in baccarat works in a narrow mathematical sense. Sure, the cards have already been removed from a finite shoe, which means that it is possible to manipulate and take advantage of the expected return of the available bets. What it doesn’t usually do is create a worthwhile advantage for the player.
Yes, a simplified count might reduce the house edge by a fraction of a percentage point, with more experienced players possibly reducing it slightly further, but we’re talking about tiny fractions of a percentage point.
Plus, you have to be willing to sit at a table for hours upon hours; the time, concentration, and accuracy required are virtually impossible to justify (especially given that the casino keeps most of the edge anyway).
While mathematically it’s interesting on paper, practically you’re much better off learning how to count cards in blackjack, which has a much higher real-world advantage.
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